How did AIPAC-backed candidates fare in the US midterm elections?

Nearly a year before he stunned many by winning a seat in the United States Senate from Texas, James Talarico drew attention for his vehement rejection of campaign funding from the country’s largest pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

“I’ve never taken money from AIPAC, and I’m not taking money from AIPAC in this campaign,” Talarico said in a clip for a podcast that later went viral. “Seeing what’s happening in Gaza makes me sick to my stomach as a teacher, as a Christian, as a human being.”

On November 3, Talarico won by more than 12 percentage points. Pro-Israel groups allied with AIPAC gave modest support – about $6,000 – to Talarico’s opponent, Ken Paxton, but Talarico’s willingness to be so open about his disdain for AIPAC is still a notable part of a shift in US politics.

In races across the country, AIPAC and political spending groups linked to it poured tens of millions of dollars into backing one candidate or another. While the group did back many winning candidates, nearly two-thirds of the total money it spent this election cycle went to those who ended up losing.

Even among Republicans, candidates are thinking twice about taking funds from the group, said Rina Shah, a geopolitical adviser and strategist and a former senior GOP congressional aide.

“A few years ago, taking AIPAC support was a no-brainer for most GOP candidates,” she told Al Jazeera. “Now, with a younger, more America First wing asking hard questions about foreign entanglements, and Gaza weighing on voters across the spectrum, it’s become a real topic, not a niche one.”

More opaque spending

How AIPAC spends money has become more opaque. In October, for instance, the group said it would stop endorsing candidates and making direct contributions to them after this election cycle. Much of its spending already runs through affiliated political action committees, such as its super PAC, the United Democracy Project (UDP), making donations harder to track.

AIPAC has funded hundreds of candidates in the midterm elections, in both primaries and the general election on November 3, according to Track AIPAC, an organisation that records the group’s funding of US politicians. The organisation tabulates spending by UDP as well as nearly 50 other PACs tied to the pro-Israel lobbying group.

On November 4, the day after the Democratic Party roundly defeated Republicans and won control of both the House and Senate, AIPAC said it had already counted some 234 candidates it backed, from both parties, as having won their contests.

Candidates won, but most money went to waste

In terms of the number of winning candidates, the group still has a strong record. Pro-Israel groups like AIPAC and UDP backed candidates in at least 32 of 35 Senate races this election, according to Track AIPAC. In 26 of those races, the groups spent more than $100,000 on a candidate, and 21 of those candidates won their races on November 3.

“AIPAC members are determined to expand their political activism in the cycles ahead,” the group said in a post on X that specifically pointed to support for the two most powerful Democrats in Congress – Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries – who have also continued to call for maintaining strong US ties with Israel.

But nearly two-thirds of the total money pro-Israel groups spent in the midterm elections went to candidates who lost, according to a tally by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Around $55m of the $84m that AIPAC, UDP and linked groups spent in the election cycle went to candidates who did not win, according to the findings.

“We have entered a new era,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a foreign policy think tank that advocates for less US foreign involvement. “It is not just that AIPAC is spending millions of dollars and losing. You also have a new reality now in which candidates find AIPAC’s donations toxic and are rejecting it.”

The most notable race in which an AIPAC-backed candidate lost was for a Senate seat in Michigan, where the group and affiliated PACs spent some $30m on Representative Haley Stevens, a Democrat who unsuccessfully sought the party’s nomination for the contest. According to the New York Times, AIPAC then poured an additional $9m into backing Republican Mike Rogers, who lost on November 3 to Abdul El-Sayed, an outspoken critic of Israel who has called for the US to stop giving financial support to the country.

“Thank you for giving me the opportunity to beat you twice,” El-Sayed said in his victory speech on election night, addressing the pro-Israel lobbying group.

In Maine, AIPAC-linked groups gave more than $4.8m in support of Senator Susan Collins’s re-election campaign. Collins lost to Democrat Troy Jackson, who flipped a seat long held by Republicans.

In California, Melissa Hernandez received more than $6m in backing from UDP and other pro-Israel groups this year, as she sought to defeat Aisha Wahab, a left-leaning Afghan American who has frequently been critical of Israel, in a contest for a seat in the House. Wahab won that race.

Backing candidates who won again in Democratic strongholds

But in other races, the pro-Israel groups have successfully backed candidates, especially in primary races in recent years, ensuring that the Democratic Party ends up nominating candidates who are not too far to the left and not overly critical of Israel.

In Missouri, AIPAC-related groups provided more than about $3m in funding to support Representative Wesley Bell. Bell, a Democrat running in a traditional stronghold for the party, won a seat in the House on November 3 with more than 81 percent of the vote. Most of that money was spent in primaries, where AIPAC financially backed Bell’s campaign against former Representative Cori Bush, who was one of the first lawmakers in Congress to call Israel’s war on Gaza a genocide and who had lost to Bell in a primary in 2024. Previously, AIPAC-related groups funneled $8m into beating Bush that year. Jeffries supported Bell in this year’s primary rematch.

In another Democratic win in a party stronghold, George Latimer was re-elected to the House to represent a New York district just north of New York City. AIPAC spent some $14m defeating his opponent in 2024, when he ousted left-wing Israel critic Jamaal Bowman.

UDP also spent more than $4m in 2024 on another primary, this time helping Democrat Sarah Elfreth beat out more left-leaning candidates to win the party’s nomination. Elfreth again won in the heavily Democratic district on November 3.

Not the only lobbying group on Israel in town

AIPAC is no longer the only lobbying group on Israel, though.

J Street, a Jewish American group that describes itself as pro-Israel and pro-peace, said on November 4 that it had backed more than 200 candidates with more than $13m in funding, in a campaign aimed especially at candidates backed by AIPAC.

It has especially sought to back Democratic candidates who offer a more moderate view on Israel, even as some party leaders have claimed that being more overtly critical of Israel would alienate Jewish voters. But a poll commissioned by J Street found that 72 percent of American Jewish voters still backed the party in the midterm elections.

“In an election with so much at stake for American democracy, we are proud to have supported a record number of candidates who share our commitment to Israel’s future, democracy and a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” J Street President Jeremy Ben-Ami said in a statement.