China's Exports Surge on AI Demand
John Power
China's exports rose 36.3% year-on-year in September to $447.18bn, the biggest monthly increase since 2021, as semiconductor and data-processing shipments surged. Imports climbed 31%, leaving a nine-month trade surplus of $938.1bn.
China's exports rose by more than a third in September, giving a boost to the world's second-largest economy as it grapples with slowing growth.
According to data released Wednesday by China's General Administration of Customs, September exports reached $447.18bn, up 36.3% year-on-year, following a 25% rise in August.
It was the largest monthly export increase since 2021, when China's trade figures were distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic and strict lockdown measures.
Technology-related trade led the growth, with semiconductor exports up more than 108% and exports of automatic data-processing machines up nearly 55%.
Imports rose 31% year-on-year, higher than the 28.2% recorded in August, according to customs data.
"High-tech demand, supported by the upcycle in global and domestic AI, remains the main driver, while China's price competitiveness and supply-chain strength in other key export categories also helped sustain momentum," Taylor Wang, an economist at HSBC Hong Kong, said in a note to clients.
In the first nine months of the year, China's total exports rose 21.3% to $3.37 trillion, while imports climbed 27.5% to $2.43 trillion.
The gap between exports and imports over the first three quarters gave China a trade surplus of $938.1bn.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was China's largest export market by a wide margin, with shipments to the bloc rising more than 52% in September to $81.7bn.
Exports to the European Union rose 25.3% in September to $60.15bn, while exports to the United States increased 39.6% to $47.88bn.
After decades of relying on state investment and exports to drive the economy, China is searching for new growth paths amid a shrinking population, a weakened property market and soft domestic consumption, which contributes far less to GDP than in advanced economies.
In the International Monetary Fund's latest growth forecast, China's economy is projected to expand 4.5% in 2026, the slowest pace since 1990, excluding the exceptional pandemic years.
"Strong export growth will help China maintain its 4.5-5% growth target for 2026," Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, told Al Jazeera.
However, Song said: "Growth remains quite unbalanced, as domestic data is rather weak by comparison. Rebalancing growth over the medium term will be crucial if China wants to meet its long-term growth goals."
