World Cup 2026: Messi, Mbappe, Haaland Lead Golden Boot Race

The race for the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup has been thrilling from the first matches. After two rounds of group stage games, Argentina's Lionel Messi leads with five goals, followed by Kylian Mbappe (France) and Erling Haaland (Norway) with four each.

Deniz Undav (Germany) and Jonathan David (Canada) have three goals each behind them. Notably, 20 other players have scored twice, including Harry Kane (England), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Vinicius Jr (Brazil), and Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain).

Given the current scoring rate, experts suggest it may take double figures to win the Golden Boot — a feat only achieved three times in history: by Sandor Kocsis (Hungary, 1954), Just Fontaine (France, 1958), and Gerd Muller (West Germany, 1970). Fontaine still holds the record with 13 goals in a single World Cup.

The expanded format to 48 teams means semi-finalists will play eight matches, more than any previous edition. At the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, just five goals were enough to win the Golden Boot, while no one has scored more than eight in the last 13 tournaments, except Ronaldo (Brazil, 2002) and Mbappe (Qatar 2022).

Why is World Cup 2026 producing so many goals?

After only 33 matches, the tournament had already produced 100 goals — the second-fastest rate in history after 1954. By the 45th game, the total had reached 139, surpassing the record of 136 goals in the group stage of the 2014 World Cup (with three fewer matches). With 40 more games than the old format, the record of 172 goals set in Qatar 2022 is certain to be broken.

One reason is believed to be the new Adidas Trionda ball, with deeper grooves that stabilize its flight and increase grip when shooting or dribbling in wet conditions. Austria coach Ralf Rangnick commented: 'This ball is like a cannonball, very hard to stop if you shoot accurately.'

The introduction of cooling breaks also helps players maintain fitness, leading to more late goals. Additionally, having 48 teams, including many weaker sides, creates lopsided matches. Colombia coach Nestor Lorenzo believes forwards today receive more protection from referees: '20-30 years ago, they were fouled more often; rough play was more common.'

Who will win the Golden Boot?

Much depends on fitness and how deep their teams go. At age 38, Messi is seen as a leading contender. He scored seven goals in the previous World Cup and has found the net in six consecutive tournament matches. Argentina have already secured top spot in Group J and may rest Messi for their final group game against Jordan. If things go their way, they could face Uruguay or Cape Verde in the round of 32, Australia or Iran in the round of 16, and Croatia or Colombia in the quarter-finals. Only in the semi-finals might they meet a powerhouse like England, Brazil, Japan, Norway, or Mexico.

Mbappe also has a favorable path. France face Norway in their final Group I match to decide top spot. If they win, they could meet Sweden in the round of 32, Germany in the round of 16, and the Netherlands or Morocco in the quarter-finals. Meanwhile, the group runner-up might face Ivory Coast, Brazil, Japan, and England — a tougher route that could affect Haaland's chances, though he has scored 59 goals in 52 matches for Norway.

Harry Kane will look to compete as England face Panama in their final Group L match. If they win, they would face Cape Verde in the round of 32 and Mexico in the round of 16. Cristiano Ronaldo may have had a slow start, as Portugal face Colombia in their final Group K match, then could meet Ghana and Spain. Vinicius Jr could also boost his tally when Brazil face Scotland in their final Group C match.