Ukraine Bolsters Donetsk Defenses, Shifts to Striking Russia's Weapons Supply

Ukraine has reinforced defenses in the eastern Donetsk region as Russia mounts new efforts to capture Sloviansk – a crucial part of Ukraine's "fortress belt," which also includes the cities of Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapatyi made his first major decision since taking office on August 26, bolstering two units defending Sloviansk. Russian forces have also entered the fortress city of Kostiantynivka south of Sloviansk but have not yet taken control.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said Kyiv still holds positions in the center and north of Kostiantynivka. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 70-80% of Russia's losses occur on the Kostiantynivka front. He estimates Russia's losses this year at 267,000, including at least 155,000 killed.

Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed on August 28 that his troops had advanced to within 4 km of Sloviansk. However, maps published by Deep State and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show Russian forces are 12 to 16 km from Sloviansk.

Ukraine Disrupts Russia's Frontline Supply Lines

Ukraine is intensifying its campaign to disrupt Russia's supply of manpower, ammunition, and fuel to the front lines by targeting warehouses, airfields, and transport routes. ISW estimates that Russia has lost 27 square kilometers in August and at least 233 square kilometers this year.

On August 20, Ukraine destroyed 18 drone storage warehouses at Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Krasnodar Krai and a Sukhoi-24 fighter at Saky airfield in Crimea. Two days later, Ukrainian drone systems destroyed Sukhoi-33 and MiG-29 fighters at Vityazevo airfield, along with an Orion drone. The same day, they struck an oil transfer station at Yeisk.

On August 24, Ukraine destroyed another MiG-29 at Millerovo airfield in Rostov. Ukraine has also targeted ballistic missile launchers and radar systems for destruction, and has struck 12 Russian military supply ships, bringing the total number of ships disabled in the campaign to 242.

Ukraine has also struck 267 power stations and substations in Crimea over six weeks, causing near-total blackouts across the peninsula. Russia-appointed head of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov acknowledged "objective difficulties that cannot be resolved in the short term for technical reasons." Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces Robert Brovdi said households and businesses in Crimea have electricity for about one hour per day on average.

Russian Oil Refineries in Flames

Ukraine's long-range strikes have hit Russian oil refineries 31 times since early June. Since August 20, Ukraine has struck the Akhtubinsk oil refinery and the Astrakhan gas processing plant in the Caucasus, Lukoil refineries in Perm and Nizhny Novgorod – located 1,300 km and 800 km from Ukraine respectively – the Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara, and the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar.

Alexander Shokhin, president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, said Ukraine's drone strikes have removed 25-30% of Russia's refining capacity – a conclusion also reported by the Financial Times. This economic warfare has also burned down 15 of the largest distribution centers of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, causing an estimated 3 trillion rubles ($35 billion) in damage. On August 24, Ukraine also struck Ozon, Russia's second-largest online retailer, for the first time.

Russian Strikes and Ukraine's Response

Russia has attacked Ukrainian cities in what it calls retaliatory strikes. President Vladimir Putin declared: "We have begun to respond to enemy actions against our civilian industrial and logistics facilities. The Kyiv regime has set a goal of undermining our economy. It has opened a Pandora's box itself."

Russia has also launched economic warfare against Ukraine, recently targeting the main grain export ports of Odesa and Chernomorsk. President Zelenskyy said 4-5 ships still enter and leave daily, but that is 3-4 times fewer than before Russia's blockade this summer. Russia has also struck border crossings between Ukraine and Moldova – an alternative grain export route.

However, many Russian strikes also hit residential and civilian areas, causing heavy casualties far from the front line. On August 21, a Russian drone killed 16 people and injured 130 shopping in Kryvyi Rih. On August 27, several people were injured after residential buildings in the Poltava, Sumy, and Kherson regions were hit by missiles.

In the August 27 attack, Russia used Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and Ukraine intercepted 7 – the first intercept since late July when Kyiv ran out of Patriot missiles, the only weapons in its arsenal that can reliably intercept ballistic missiles. Two days before the attack, Zelenskyy said: "A few more Patriot missiles have arrived."

Zelenskyy said on August 23 that he hopes to stockpile about 360 Patriot missiles before winter, as requested by Ukraine's air force, but admitted "when they produce 600 per year, 360 is not easy to get." The US has refused to provide 5-10% of its stockpile. At the NATO summit in July, US President Donald Trump granted Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptor missiles at the required scale, but quickly withdrew the offer without explanation.

Ukraine is working to put its own ballistic missiles into large-scale production next year, and Zelenskyy said a concrete roadmap will be ready by early September. In the meantime, Kyiv hopes to produce its own version of the Anglo-French Storm Shadow cruise missile, also known as SCALP. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham handed Zelenskyy the blueprints when he visited Kyiv on Independence Day, August 24 – a move that angered Russia.

Ukraine is also increasingly targeting Russia's aerospace industry. On August 24, they struck the Kamensk-Shakhtinsk plant in Rostov that produces solid rocket fuel.