Six Months of Iran-US Conflict: Arab States Face Tough Questions
Simon Speakman Cordall
Analysts assess that the six-month war between the US, Israel, and Iran will not lead to the collapse of Tehran's government or a clear victory for Washington, but rather a prolonged, grinding struggle that destabilizes Gulf economies. The conflict has disrupted oil shipping through key straits, raised prices, and forced regional states to adapt to a volatile security environment.
Analysts believe the war between the US, Israel, and Iran will not lead to the collapse of Tehran's government or a clear victory for Washington, but rather a prolonged, attritional conflict marked by mutual exhaustion.
The war began after surprise attacks by Israel and the US on February 28. At that time, US leaders hoped that increasing economic and military pressure would force Iran to change its political structure. However, after six months, this scenario has not materialized. Instead, many parties are preparing for a protracted conflict and seeking to manage its consequences.
Oil-dependent economies continue to absorb supply shocks as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply compared to pre-war levels, due to Iranian attacks on vessels and a US blockade of Iranian ports. The US military maintains a heavy presence in the region, marking the highest level of militarization in years.
Although the intensity of fighting has decreased since Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the war shows no signs of ending, leaving the region's future uncertain. Existing tensions, such as those between the Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, are expected to escalate. The influence of other powers like India and China is stalled but not halted, as Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative has established a foothold in the Middle East and North Africa. The region is in a state of flux, where formal alliances with external powers no longer guarantee absolute safety.
The defense agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia signed recently in Mecca is predicted to be one of the first military pacts in the region.
“War only accelerates trends that were already underway; it doesn’t really initiate anything new. Gulf states have diversified their economies and sought to expand defense partnerships beyond US security guarantees, while also bolstering domestic military capabilities,” said Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
On the Israeli side, it continues to pursue its regional objectives despite failing to subdue Iran, according to HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute in the UK. “The Tehran government is unlikely to collapse within the next six months. If everything remains unchanged and economic pressure increases, that could trigger ripple effects leading to the collapse of the Iranian state. But that requires years, not months, and things are unlikely to stay the same,” Hellyer said.
The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on cities in the region have hampered Gulf states' plans to use oil revenues for economic diversification. Shipments of oil, derivatives, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been continuously disrupted since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. Shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which had seen Houthi attacks during Israel's campaign in Gaza, has become more dangerous since July when the group declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.
“Oil prices are rising due to export difficulties for Gulf states. Will this last for six months or longer?” questioned John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Gulf Research Center.
Gulf states face additional challenges as inflation rises alongside oil prices. Beyond the economic problems caused by the war, there is mounting pressure to increase defense spending. For now, most countries caught in the middle will seek to adapt to the chaos and manage the consequences.
