US and Iran trade strikes, Hormuz agreement on brink of collapse
Yashraj Sharma
For the first time since signing a preliminary agreement on June 15, the United States and Iran have carried out reciprocal attacks over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn the fragile deal could collapse as both sides accuse each other of violations.
For the first time since a preliminary agreement was signed on June 15 to end months of conflict, the United States and Iran have launched reciprocal attacks. Both sides blame each other for violating the terms of a memorandum signed by US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.
The focus of the latest escalation is the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway Iran blockaded in retaliation for the US-Israeli military campaign. Tehran uses the strait—a global energy chokepoint—as a geostrategic lever.
Where and why did the US strike?
US Central Command said its aircraft struck missile sites, drone storage facilities, and radar stations along Iran's southern coast late Friday, describing it as a "forceful response" to the previous day's attack on a commercial vessel transiting the Hormuz Strait.
On Thursday, the Singapore-flagged merchant ship Ever Lovely was hit by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. Iran neither confirmed nor denied the attack. President Trump called it a "foolish breach" of the ceasefire agreement, adding that US forces had intercepted three other drones in the same coordinated attack.
The US military later released a grainy black-and-white video of an explosion, citing "an unprovoked act of aggression against a commercial vessel by Iranian forces that clearly violates the ceasefire." Iran said a projectile struck an area near the jetty in Sirik, southern Hormozgan province, but caused no damage.
Where and why did Iran strike?
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it retaliated with attacks on US military bases in the region but provided no details. The IRGC warned that if attacked further, the response would be broader.
On Saturday, Bahrain's Foreign Ministry condemned "an Iranian drone attack on its territory," describing it as a serious violation of sovereignty and international law, endangering civilians and undermining regional de-escalation efforts.
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran asserts it maintains control and management of the strait—Tehran's biggest bargaining chip in negotiations with the US and Israel. Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis. Tehran wants to impose transit fees on ships, but the US and Gulf states reject the idea.
Iran published a map of permitted transit routes in April, requiring vessels to sail closer to its coast. Under the Islamabad memorandum, Iran agreed to "arrange, using its best efforts, for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for 60 days" and to discuss future arrangements with Gulf states. The agreement does not specify what happens after 60 days.
Has the memorandum been broken?
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that the latest attacks "certainly put the agreement under extreme strain." Andrea Dessi of the American University of Rome said "the agreement is extremely fragile and could collapse at any moment," though both sides have interests in preventing a further escalation into full-blown conflict.
An Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran noted this escalation is a major threat to ongoing negotiations. "The reason Iran insists on controlling Hormuz is that it is their biggest lever. They believe that if they lose this pressure tool, their position at the negotiating table will weaken significantly."
