The United Nations climate agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has warned of an increased risk of extreme weather events in the coming weeks and months due to the arrival of El Nino. According to a statement released Tuesday, the likelihood of El Nino occurring between June and August is 80%, rising to about 90% by November.
In a video address, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed: "The science is clear: El Nino is approaching with a 90% probability. The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning."
El Nino is a natural phenomenon that occurs every 2–7 years and lasts 9–12 months, causing changes in wind, pressure, and rainfall globally. The WMO said El Nino can bring heavy rains to southern South America, the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, and also fueling storms in the central and eastern Pacific.
The agency forecasts this year's El Nino to be at least moderate, and possibly strong. Mr. Guterres warned: "The impacts will be stronger, more widespread, and will cross borders with devastating speed."
Researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network of climate scientists believe El Nino could increase severe wildfires this year. In preparation, the European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft to high-risk areas, including Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal.
The most recent El Nino (2023–2024) was assessed by meteorologists as strong and contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. She also warned of other risks from extreme temperatures, including the wider spread of mosquito- and tick-borne diseases, as well as reduced food and clean water supplies. "Already struggling communities will be pushed even further beyond their limits," she said.
On prices, inflation from the US-Israel conflict with Iran could drive food prices higher due to El Nino. Barry Callebaut CEO Hein Schumacher warned that crops in major cocoa-producing regions such as Ecuador and West Africa (which account for 60% of global output) could decline, leading to prices soaring to thousands of dollars per ton.
Secretary-General Guterres concluded that El Nino is a reminder of the need to shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," he said.
