A new opinion poll released on August 15 shows Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva still leading right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential election scheduled for October. However, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed considerably.
According to the Quaest Institute survey, in a second-round simulation, Lula would secure 43% of the vote, while Flavio Bolsonaro – the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro – would receive 40%. With a margin of error of 2 percentage points, this result is seen as a tight race between the two front-runners.
Compared to Quaest's previous poll on August 5, when Lula led by 5 percentage points (44% to 39%), the current gap has shrunk significantly, reflecting the rapidly changing political landscape in this South American nation.
In the first-round voting scenario, Lula still leads with 38% support, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 31%. Other candidates include Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, each at 4%, and Romeu Zema with 2%.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two candidates head to a decisive runoff.
Flavio Bolsonaro is emerging as the representative of Brazil's right wing after his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from running. Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court ruled that Bolsonaro abused power during his tenure and is ineligible to run. Additionally, Bolsonaro was separately convicted in connection with a plot to overturn the results of the 2022 election, which he lost to Lula.
The poll was conducted by Quaest from August 10 to 13, surveying 2,004 people and commissioned by Brazil's Globo media conglomerate.
Lula officially launched his re-election campaign on August 2 at the Workers' Party convention in Sao Paulo, positioning himself as the defender of Brazil's "sovereignty" amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on the race. He called for increased defense spending and pledged to protect the country's reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control.
"I want to be ready so that no one invades this country," Lula emphasized. He warned that China, the United States, and France would not gain access to Brazil's mineral resources unless they respect its sovereignty. He also declared: "In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose into matters that are not their concern."
President Trump is said to have a close relationship with the Bolsonaro family. In June, Lula warned Trump not to interfere in Brazil's election: "Don't interfere in Brazil's elections, because Brazil's elections are a matter for Brazilians, just as U.S. elections are their business, not mine."
With voting about two months away, the poll results show Brazil's presidential race is highly competitive, though Lula still holds a structural advantage in the final stretch of the campaign.
