New Polls Show Democrats Gaining Ground in Texas, Threatening Republican Stronghold

A series of new polls show Democrats gaining an edge in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Texas, turning the state long considered a Republican fortress into a hot battleground ahead of November's midterm elections.

On August 22, the nonpartisan research group Texas Pulse, partly run by the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, released its latest public opinion survey on the state's races.

According to the results, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race by 4 points, 47% to 43%.

The figure shows momentum for Talarico, who was tied with Paxton in a June Texas Pulse poll.

Texas Pulse's results echo another survey released on August 21, in which Talarico led with 48% to Paxton's 45%, with 6% of respondents undecided. That poll, conducted by research firms YouGov and 254 Labs, showed strong support for Talarico among independent voters.

Specifically, 57% of independents backed the Democratic candidate, while 20% said they were still undecided. A Fox News poll from late July also showed 68% of independents supporting Talarico, a 37-year-old state lawmaker.

Though polling can shift significantly in the months before an election, the new surveys are seen as encouraging signs for Democrats in their bid to take control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress and block President Donald Trump's agenda.

However, analysts note that regaining the Senate is more difficult than the House, since only one-third of Senate seats are up for election while all 435 House seats are contested. This makes every Senate race critical for both parties.

Cost of Living Concerns

Texas has long been a Republican stronghold. More than three decades have passed since a Democrat won a statewide election in Texas.

However, the open Senate seat in Texas has created an unusual and competitive race for Democrats.

Paxton, backed by former President Trump, defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May primary.

But the longtime state attorney general raises concerns within the GOP about his ability to attract moderate voters. Paxton's political career has been marred by corruption scandals, including allegations of abuse of office and misconduct involving a political donor, leading to his impeachment but not removal.

He also faced a securities fraud case that lasted nearly a decade and was dismissed last year. Paxton's support for the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and allegations of infidelity have also drawn criticism.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released last week showed Paxton trailing Talarico by 5 points, 45% to 40%. Notably, that survey found Talarico leading by 34 percentage points among self-identified moderate voters, with 54% support compared to Paxton's 20%.

Evan Roth Smith, head of polling at Texas Public Opinion Research, attributed the momentum to Talarico's focused campaign strategy.

“Talarico is leading because he's running the way every Democrat in this country should run. When they appear on TV, podcasts, or interviews, they should focus on cost of living. If we can win on the cost of living, we can win elections,” Smith told Al Jazeera.

Talarico, a former teacher with a seminary background, has centered his campaign on economic issues and cost of living, proposing a federal minimum wage increase. Late last month, he also unveiled a plan to eliminate tax breaks for tech companies building data centers.

Meanwhile, Paxton's economic platform focuses on tax cuts, including a $25,000 deduction for medical expenses and $50,000 for first-time homebuyers.

The Texas gubernatorial race is also tightening between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. According to the Texas Pulse survey on August 22, the gap is now just 1 point, with Abbott leading 46% to Hinojosa's 45%.

The Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Abbott ahead by 3 points, but 10% of voters remain undecided, a factor that could alter the outcome.