A new poll released by Quaest on Thursday shows right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holding a slender lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as the two candidates head into a tense second round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for October 25.
According to the survey, Bolsonaro – son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro – received 46% support, compared with 44% for Lula. The 2-point gap falls within the poll's margin of error.
In the first-round vote on October 4, Bolsonaro stunned observers by finishing ahead of Lula by less than 2 points, even though most earlier surveys had predicted the leftist president would win narrowly outright in the first round. No candidate secured the majority needed to avoid a runoff.
This is Quaest's first poll since the first round, indicating Bolsonaro retains his lead and remains the candidate viewed more favorably going into the runoff.
After his October 4 setback, Lula has sought to rally supporters with large rallies that have drawn millions into the streets.
Although Bolsonaro continues to lead in the polls, analysts note he has not benefited as much as expected from the elimination of other conservative candidates, whose voters would presumably have backed him rather than Lula.
Still, Bolsonaro has made progress in securing support from right-wing and center-right parties, aiming to consolidate the conservative electorate and build a business-friendly coalition with an agenda sought by investors.
In a separate development, Brazil's Senate on Wednesday approved a constitutional amendment reducing the maximum workweek from 44 hours to 40 hours without a pay cut. It is a key priority for Lula as the president pushes an agenda aimed at voters worried about the cost of living.
“Today is a day to celebrate a historic achievement for millions of workers,” Lula said in a statement. “This means more time to live, rest, be with family, watch children grow, take care of oneself and enjoy life. Those who work hard to build Brazil also deserve time to live.”
The president has also recently banned sports betting, after a surge in gambling addiction contributed to rising household debt across the country.
