Poll: Majority of Democratic voters in early 2028 primary states oppose Israel aid

A majority of Democratic voters in states that will play a decisive role in picking the 2028 presidential nominee oppose continued U.S. aid and weapons transfers to Israel, according to a new poll.

The survey, released Monday by the IMEU Policy Project, a Palestinian rights advocacy think tank, is the latest sign of eroding support for Israel in the United States, particularly within the Democratic Party.

Conducted by the research firm YouGov, the poll found that majorities of voters in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

These states will host the first primaries of the 2028 election cycle and are crucial to selecting the Democratic nominee, who could ultimately become the next U.S. president.

In Michigan, 80% of respondents — including 91% of voters under 45 — answered “yes” when asked whether they believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

A 52% majority of respondents in South Carolina, the first Democratic primary state of the 2028 campaign, said they oppose weapons sales to Israel, which would effectively amount to an arms embargo against the U.S. ally if enacted.

Respondents across all six states also expressed support for imposing sanctions on Israel and enforcing the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Hamid Bendaas, a spokesman for IMEU Policy Project, said a key takeaway from the survey is that support for Israel among Democratic voters has become negligible. In South Carolina, only 2% of those surveyed said they support military aid to Israel.

Bendaas also noted that voters support strong anti-Israel policies, such as sanctions, which are often dismissed by mainstream media as unrealistic.

“These are things that, when discussed, are often regarded as 'outside the mainstream,' but they receive overwhelming support from voters who are likely to have a decisive role in selecting the next Democratic presidential nominee,” Bendaas told Al Jazeera.

The Democratic Party finalized its 2028 primary calendar this month, choosing South Carolina to host the first contest on January 22, followed by weekly contests in the other five states.

These early primaries will generate significant momentum for top finishers and weed out candidates who fail to make an early mark.

The vote is still 16 months away, but IMEU's findings, consistent with data from other polls, could shape Democratic candidates' platforms on the issue.

Israel has rapidly lost support within the Democratic Party over the years, a trend accelerated by the genocidal war in Gaza that began in October 2023.

However, Democratic leadership has maintained support for Israel. The United States, under former Democratic President Joe Biden, who described himself as a Zionist, provided Israel with tens of billions of dollars as the country reduced much of Gaza to rubble.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries are also staunch supporters of Israel.

But cracks in the decades-long bipartisan support for Israel in Washington are widening. In July, more than 100 House Democrats — nearly half of the party's caucus — voted to block weapons transfers to Israel.

With progressive critics of Israel winning Democratic primaries across the country, Israel-Palestine policy is likely to play a significant role in the 2028 presidential primaries.

This month, Abdul El-Sayed surprised Democratic leadership by overcoming more than $60 million in spending by a pro-Israel opponent to win the party's nomination for a Senate seat in Michigan.

Bendaas argues that the 2028 presidential race could close the gap between public opinion and party policy, contending that any candidate seeking the nomination will need to align with voters on this issue.

“When that happens, when there's a new leader with new positions, that really helps parties change faster,” he told Al Jazeera. “Unfortunately, the current leadership of the Democratic Party holds very conservative views on the U.S.-Israel relationship. And so, the last thing that needs to happen is for the party to get a new leader who truly reflects its voters.”