Rubio's Hormuz Strait Bypass Plan: Ambitious Vision, Daunting Hurdles

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's latest remarks on the Strait of Hormuz have sparked a lively debate about the future of global energy transport. In an interview with Fox News aired Saturday, Rubio floated the idea of a permanent geopolitical shift beyond the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that once saw about one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil pass through before the US-Israel war on Iran. He argued that regional countries now understand Iran, which has vowed never to relinquish control of this strategic chokepoint, is an active threat, necessitating a major restructuring of how energy commodities reach global markets.

However, economists and geopolitical analysts caution that redrawing the Middle East's energy map faces daunting logistical and security obstacles.

Strategic vision, not a quick fix

To grasp the scale of Rubio's vision, consider the immense trade volume that passes through this waterway. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), this 39-kilometer-wide strait handles about 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Additionally, the EIA notes the strait is also a transit point for one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, most of it coming from Qatar.

Economic researcher Ahmed Abu Qamar told Al Jazeera that Rubio's statement represents a long-term strategic vision rather than an immediately implementable economic plan. He said energy markets are governed by the harsh realities of supply and demand, and it would take decades and billions of dollars in investment to even partially reduce dependence on the strait — one of the world's primary arteries for goods.

The most serious challenge lies in natural gas, Abu Qamar said, as the entire LNG export ecosystem — including liquefaction plants, specialized vessels, and receiving ports — is heavily reliant on Hormuz. He warned that if this route were blocked, Europe and Asia would be forced into fierce competition for alternative gas supplies, inevitably causing sharp price spikes, global inflation, and deep disruption for central banks worldwide.

Pipeline illusions and the Red Sea trap

To achieve this major shift, Middle East energy producers have previously proposed building massive overland pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The bright spot of this strategy is Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, which connects the Abqaiq oil processing facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. After recent repairs following wartime attacks, the Saudi Energy Ministry confirmed the pipeline is back in operation with a pumping capacity of about 7 million barrels per day. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, capable of moving up to 1.8 million barrels per day directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, also outside the Strait of Hormuz.

However, completely replacing the Strait of Hormuz as the primary corridor for energy from producers to consumers is mathematically impossible in the short term. An Al Jazeera analysis reported that existing alternative pipelines have a total maximum capacity of only about 9 million barrels per day, far below the 20 million barrels that typically traverse the strait. The EIA estimates that in the event of a sudden disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, only about 2.6 million barrels per day of spare capacity would be available from Saudi and UAE pipelines. Abu Qamar also questioned the feasibility of this route for other major producers, asking how Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq would export their vast energy output without going through the strait.

Shifting dependence from Hormuz to the Red Sea also transfers geopolitical risk to other regional chokepoints. Saudi Arabia's successful bypass route depends on keeping the Bab al-Mandeb strait open for ships heading south to key Asian markets such as China, Japan, and India. Redirecting oil to Yanbu merely forces tankers bound for Asia to pass through Bab al-Mandeb — which is actively threatened by Houthi forces in Yemen.

Static targets and investment fears

Avoiding sea lanes with overland infrastructure carries its own serious security risks. In an Al Jazeera report, independent energy analyst George Voloshin stressed that pipelines and pumping stations are high-value static targets. These facilities remain highly vulnerable to drone and missile attacks, as seen in previous disruptions. Moving off the sea simply shifts the risk onto land. Abu Qamar pointed out that Iran is fully capable of targeting these overland pipelines and disrupting maritime traffic thousands of kilometers away. Because these massive infrastructure projects lack adequate protection against modern drone warfare, major global energy companies are hesitant to invest billions of dollars in assets that could become extremely vulnerable.

Ultimately, while a process of partial diversification is underway, escaping the geographic reality of the Strait of Hormuz remains an elusive goal for the global energy market.