Strait of Hormuz Still High-Risk for Shipping Despite US Mine-Clearing Claims

US President Donald Trump said the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway that Iran almost closed after the US and Israel launched their first strikes on the country nearly six months ago. However, the very next day, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the strait remains closed, rejecting the claim that all mines have been cleared.

Conflicting Statements

On Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump wrote: "Iran has been notified that any vessel laying new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed." But speaking on Wednesday, Gharibabadi stressed the strait remains closed and dismissed Trump's claim. "No one except Iran knows the location of these mines," he said, suggesting the US president's statement was "merely to reassure the market" and warning that US minesweepers entering the area would become "very good targets."

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have agreed to launch a joint mine-clearing project in the strait, along with a deal on a temporary shipping lane for vessels, according to statements from both countries this week.

Risks Persist

Before the war began, about 130 ships passed through the strait daily, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supplies from Gulf producers.

Analysts say the US assessment that mines have been cleared from main shipping lanes is credible. But that does not mean Hormuz is entirely free of mines—or that commercial shipping can safely return to pre-war levels.

A small number of "drifting" mines or those not charted could still exist outside closely monitored shipping lanes, while Iran retains the ability to lay more. Experts also warn mines are just one of several threats to vessels passing through the strait. With no ceasefire in place and the US announcing new economic sanctions on Iran, the risk of renewed open conflict remains.

According to an S&P Global report released in July, since the war began, war-risk insurance premiums for ships transiting the strait have risen from 1–3% of hull value to 7.5–10%. Experts say these premiums will likely stay elevated, discouraging many shipping companies from returning to Hormuz operations.

Cheap Mines, High Costs

A few weeks after the war erupted in late February, Iran's Defense Council announced that any "enemy" plot against Iran's coasts or islands would result in mines being laid in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Tehran has never officially confirmed it, evidence of deployed mines emerged early.

On May 30, the Oman Maritime Security Center warned ship operators to be cautious after detecting a "suspected floating mine" near the strait on Oman's side. Three days later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iran had "laid mines in vast areas of Hormuz—international waters."

In a June 11 notification, the German Navy, citing US and UK naval information, said mines had been recorded at four locations around the strait. Britain, France, and Germany all deployed warships or mine-hunting assets to the area in preparation for possible operations.

Analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) in Philadelphia shows that while modern mines can cost tens of thousands of dollars to produce, the economic and strategic measures can be far costlier. Mines can cause massive disruption at relatively low cost—the mere suspicion of a mine in a shipping lane is enough to halt traffic.

Maritime analysts estimate Iran has about 2,000–6,000 mines, many of them domestically produced. Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, said Iran possesses both traditional moored mines and more sophisticated weapons, including seabed mines with sensors that detonate when they detect a ship's magnetic or acoustic signature.

Clearing Mines Doesn't Mean Zero Risk

Shortly after Trump's mine-clearing announcement, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said there remains a "risk of drifting or uncharted mines" in and near the strait's traffic separation schemes. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) also noted "mine danger areas" remain active.

Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer in war studies at King's College London, told Al Jazeera there is reason to believe the US assessment. "The claim that mines have been cleared originally came from CENTCOM and we can trust that," he said. The US Navy has detonated a large number of mines, using space-based surveillance and underwater robots to sweep the seabed, and has also destroyed many Iranian mine-laying vessels.

However, confirming the main shipping lanes are "clear" does not guarantee every mine has been removed. "There may still be a few free-floating mines, or so-called ghost mines," Hilborne said, adding that the risk of mines in the main channels is low given the level of surveillance, but there could be risks outside the channels.

And even if every mine the US knows about has been destroyed, Iran could still deploy more. "While the shipping lane may now be clear, that doesn't mean the threat has gone away for good," he added.

Mine clearance—also called mine countermeasures (MCM)—is a grueling and dangerous process. According to FPRI, the US Navy's dedicated MCM capability has been eroded by years of neglect. The last four Avenger-class ships in Bahrain were decommissioned in September, while the MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters—once central to airborne sweeping operations—were retired in August. The US has had to rely on a combination of warships and unmanned systems for the Hormuz campaign.

Future of Shipping

Removing mines from shipping lanes only solves part of the problem for ship operators and insurers. A supertanker with its cargo can be worth around $300 million, so war-risk insurers, oil companies, and tanker operators will demand sustained evidence of safety before sending vessels back through the strait.

"Premiums could remain high and won't drop until there's been a long period of calm," Hilborne said. "A single statement, however welcome, won't bring rates down immediately."

However, there are signs the shipping industry is adapting to the new reality. Alex Almeida, an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Ambrey, said operators' risk aversion is gradually declining as alternatives emerge. According to Bloomberg, the trading arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has offered to move Iraqi crude through the Strait of Hormuz on short voyages with transponders off, before transferring cargo to other vessels outside the Gulf.

"The UAE transshipment service is proving effective and reducing much of the insurance risk for shipowners," Almeida said, adding that Saudi Arabia is also conducting ship-to-ship transfers and offering a government-backed insurance program.

Almeida suggested these alternatives are putting Iran in a difficult position, especially as US economic pressure mounts. "I think for the first time, Iran is under genuinely more pressure than the US," he said, suggesting Tehran may seek other ways to shift the balance of power, including attacks on transshipment areas in the Gulf of Oman—which is within range of Iranian missiles and drones.

Ultimately, mine-clearing is not a reliable measure of Hormuz's safety. "The thing is, mines... were never the main threat," Almeida said, emphasizing the greater risk comes from "drones and anti-ship missiles, cruise and ballistic missiles" launched from Iranian soil. These attacks have subsided for now, but the underlying confrontation between Washington and Tehran remains unresolved—leaving shipowners and insurers weighing the possibility that the route could once again become a battlefield.