How El Niño Will Reshape Global Tropical Cyclones This Year
Marium Ali
El Niño, the cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity but increase Pacific storm formation during the 2026 cyclone season. The phenomenon disrupts global wind and rain patterns, altering where and how many tropical cyclones develop worldwide.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity in mid-September. During this period, warm ocean waters and shifting atmospheric conditions drive tropical storms and hurricanes that threaten the Caribbean, the U.S. East Coast, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, primarily due to El Niño. The probability of below-normal activity is 55%, near-normal 35%, and above-normal 10%.
What Is El Niño and How Does It Affect Storms?
El Niño is the cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The resulting disruption to global wind and rain patterns can worsen floods, droughts, and heat waves in many parts of the world. This weather phenomenon also tends to push global average temperatures slightly higher during its active phase.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, though some episodes can be longer. La Niña, by contrast, is the cooling of Pacific temperatures. Both are part of the larger climate pattern known as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
El Niño reduces Atlantic storm activity while boosting Pacific storms; La Niña does the reverse, generating more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.
How Do Tropical Cyclones Form?
Tropical cyclones form over warm ocean waters near the equator. As warm air rises, a low-pressure area develops. Cooler air is pushed aside by rising warm air, generating strong winds and rain. When wind speeds reach 63 km/h (39 mph), the system is called a tropical storm. At 119 km/h (74 mph), it becomes a hurricane, cyclone, or typhoon.
Hurricanes: Occur in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, typically affecting the U.S. East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean. Strength is measured on a scale from Category 1 to 5.
Cyclones: Occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, affecting countries from Australia to Mozambique. The cyclone season generally runs from November to April.
Typhoons: Occur in the northwest Pacific, often affecting the Philippines and Japan. The most common typhoon season is May to October.
El Niño's Impact on Storms Worldwide
North Atlantic: Reduced storm activity. An average season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. Historically, storm days drop by 60% and system intensity declines overall during El Niño.
Northeast Pacific (near Hawaii): More storms form during El Niño. In the year after an El Niño, many storms tend to drift into this region.
Australia and South Pacific: During El Niño, fewer storms form off Australia's coast. The storm formation zone shifts east into the South Pacific, near and just east of the International Date Line.
Asia and Northwest Pacific: Total storm numbers remain steady, but formation locations change. Fewer storms form in the west near Asia, and more form eastward toward the International Date Line.
Regions with Little Change: The southwest and north Indian Ocean appear to have no major changes in storm numbers. Warm ocean waters and atmospheric conditions shift and intensify depending on the climate phase.
