Modi's Party Leads in Key Indian State Elections
Al Jazeera Staff
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in two out of four key Indian state elections, expanding influence and weakening the opposition. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is projected to retain Assam and is ahead in West Bengal, a significant gain. Preliminary results signal a boost for Modi's government amid economic and foreign policy challenges.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is on track to win two out of four crucial state elections, expanding its influence and weakening its main rivals during his third term.
The BJP is projected to retain power in the eastern state of Assam for a third consecutive term and is leading in West Bengal, according to preliminary vote-count data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) released on May 11.
The elections in five states and territories were held in April and May, with the BJP seeking to penetrate opposition-held states. This outcome would strengthen Prime Minister Modi's ability to address a host of economic and foreign policy challenges, including high unemployment and a pending trade deal with the United States.
Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and several senior BJP leaders campaigned extensively in West Bengal for weeks, focusing on the issue of 'illegal immigration' from Bangladesh and the weak economy under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Ms. Banerjee, a sharp critic of Prime Minister Modi and a key member of India's opposition coalition, has governed the state since 2011. The BJP has never controlled West Bengal.
Preliminary data from the ECI showed the ruling party leading in 176 of West Bengal's 294 seats. Before counting began, Ms. Banerjee insisted her party would win: 'The BJP will not win. Trust me. Please be patient until the very last minute.' Meanwhile, BJP West Bengal President Samik Bhattacharya expressed confidence in victory, stating, 'This election is one of rejection. The people want change.'
Reporter Neha Poonia from New Delhi observed that based on early leads, the BJP is heading for a 'big win,' surprising Ms. Banerjee. Ms. Banerjee posted a video to supporters, urging them not to be disheartened, while accusing the ECI of deliberately slowing down counting in areas where her party was likely to win.
Professor Uday Chandra from Ashoka University commented that this victory is a 'much-needed morale booster' for Prime Minister Modi's government, which is under pressure from US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the conflict in Iran.
Opposition Weakened Before Modi
In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, film star Joseph Vijay, who entered politics in 2024 by founding the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), is on track to defeat the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). This is seen as a watershed, as Dravidian politics has dominated Tamil Nadu for six decades, with the DMK and AIADMK alternating in power. Mr. Vijay attracts voters through his 'mass appeal' and promises to address unemployment, provide cash handouts for women and the unemployed, and support industries.
In Kerala, an alliance led by the Indian National Congress appears set to defeat the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist).
The DMK and Ms. Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) are pillars of the Congress-led opposition alliance. This coalition contested the 2024 general election together, stripping Prime Minister Modi of an outright parliamentary majority and forcing him to rely on regional parties to form a coalition government.
These state elections are forecast to significantly weaken the opposition facing Prime Minister Modi, who is expected to run for a fourth term in 2029. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah warned that a BJP victory in West Bengal and a TVK win in Tamil Nadu would constitute a 'political earthquake,' with aftershocks lasting until the 2029 general election.
The election campaign was overshadowed by protests over the removal of millions of voters from the rolls. The government says this removes ineligible voters, but critics argue it discriminates against minority and marginalized communities. Professor Chandra warned that the election is not 'free and fair' given that over 9 million voters were removed, mainly lower-caste Hindus and Muslims. He criticized the ECI for being under the control of New Delhi, creating an uneven playing field.
Final results are expected to be clear by the evening of May 11, but are not thought to have an immediate impact on federal politics or policy.
