Cuba has endured nearly five months of a US oil blockade, while the 2026 World Cup matches in Miami, just over 320 kilometers from Cuba's northern coast, have heightened fears on the island that a military conflict could overshadow the tournament.
Former Cuban ambassador to the EU, Carlos Alzugaray, said: “The start of the World Cup will make it harder for the US to carry out military action in Cuba. Cuba is very close to the US and could strike multiple targets inside US territory, especially in South Florida, with drones or other weapons.”
Seven matches, including Scotland vs. Brazil, are scheduled in Miami. The Scottish Football Association expects 20,000 fans to travel there. Eight teams, including England and Scotland, are training in Florida. The first match in Miami is Uruguay vs. Saudi Arabia on June 15.
Tensions escalated after leaked US intelligence documents in May revealed that Cuba had purchased 300 military drones from Russia and Iran, some with a maximum range of 2,400 kilometers. On June 10, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a visit to the Guantánamo Bay naval base, warned: “It would be unwise for the Cuban government to try to acquire weapons that can reach this base or the US mainland.”
No evidence suggests Cuba intends to disrupt the tournament. But Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has vowed that any US military attack would lead to “a massacre with unpredictable consequences.” Alzugaray drew a comparison: “Geography complicates the US military calculus, because unlike Venezuela or Iran, Cuba can strike back at US territory.”
In this context, the World Cup is seen as a temporary savior. A European diplomat noted: “In my view, Trump would be unlikely to attack during this period.” However, military moves are evident: the USS Nimitz carrier group is near Cuba's western tip; US reconnaissance aircraft are scanning the island; and an arrest warrant for former President Raúl Castro on murder charges has been issued. All of this echoes the preparations before the US abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January this year.
Before the attacks on Venezuela and Iran, President Trump received FIFA’s first Peace Award, presented by President Gianni Infantino, who praised Trump for “showing unwavering commitment to promoting peace and unity around the world.”
In Havana, filmmaker Carlos Bustamante said: “Choosing the World Cup as the time to invade Cuba would be perfect, because the world cares more about football than Cuba.” But he added: “A US invasion of Cuba would only happen if police kill protesters. The Cuban government has known this for a long time.”
Domestic pressure is also mounting as power outages last for days. On the evening of June 9, protesters set fire to trash bins to block Calzada, the street where the Cuban president usually commutes. New police units, equipped with bulletproof vests, guns, and batons, were patrolling on high-powered off-road motorcycles.
A former Scotland national team player, speaking anonymously, expressed concern: “A US attack during the World Cup would be the biggest own goal possible. It makes no sense in terms of soft or hard power.”
