Andy Burnham's Landslide By-Election Victory Challenges Starmer's Future as PM

Ashton-in-Makerfield, United Kingdom – Andy Burnham, 56, easily won Thursday's by-election, widely seen as a prelude to a Labour leadership contest. He declared he would challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who later insisted he would not “step aside” from the race.

Ashton-in-Makerfield, a suburban town in northern England, had drawn media and activist attention for months ahead of the June 12, 2026 vote. Under Labour Party rules, a lawmaker seeking to challenge the leader must secure nominations from 20% of the party's MPs—equivalent to 81 people. If Starmer does not concede or additional candidates emerge, the process will slow.

Burnham, former Manchester mayor often called the “king of the north,” failed in two previous leadership bids in 2010 and 2015. In a Friday morning speech, he said: “People voted for change, for more power for the north and for places forgotten by Westminster.”

In the by-election, Burnham won 24,927 votes, more than 9,000 ahead of his main rival, Robert Kenyon of the Reform Party. Reform came second, while Restore (a far-right party backed by Elon Musk) placed third, followed at a distance by the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.

The Starmer Problem

Since his broad but shallow victory in the 2024 general election, the 62-year-old Starmer has seen his standing decline. He has been beset by missteps, policy reversals and pressure from Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform Party. According to polls, Starmer is the most unpopular UK leader since surveys began.

Many Labour voters cast ballots with the party's survival and leadership choice in mind. “I definitely prefer Burnham over Starmer,” said Cameron Graham, 31, a factory worker. Howard Bond, a retired sales manager, said his family are lifelong Labour supporters but mistrust Starmer: “Burnham would do better. He knows what he's doing, he's very articulate and genuinely cares about the community.”

Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London commented: “Burnham connects with the public and has a clear vision. He has proven he can beat Farage in a constituency where Reform might otherwise have won easily.” In contrast, Starmer is a “poor communicator who has botched his first months in office.”

Despite a presence of anti-immigration activists from Reform and Restore, Makerfield voters largely rejected the far right. John Van Dusen, 74, sitting under a Reform flag, complained about immigration but admitted: “Labour and the Conservatives have done nothing to stop illegal immigration.” However, statistics show 97% of residents in the area were born in the UK.

Reform's rise has alarmed mainstream politicians. Some polls suggest that if a general election were held now, Reform could win. But the trend is not solely rightward. Under new leader Zack Polanski, the Green Party has gained strength on the left, including defeating Reform in the February Gorton and Denton by-election.

Professor John Curtice, a polling expert, analyzed: “The UK has truly become a five-party nation, with each party earning 17-27% of the vote—all minorities. Two factors drive this: first, demographics have broken away from traditional voting patterns after Brexit; second, socio-cultural issues have risen to the same level as economic concerns, drawing social conservatives towards Reform.”

Back in Makerfield, a woman laughed as she watched the parade of activists and reporters: “At least after this, we'll get our town back.” The by-election was described as “the most important in the country's history” by record shop owner Peter Thompson.