World Cup 2026 Group Draw: Which Teams Have an Easy Path, and Where Is the 'Group of Death'?
Adam Hancock | Al Jazeera English
The 2026 World Cup, with its expanded 48-team format, features 12 groups. This article ranks the groups from hardest to easiest, highlighting the favorites to advance.
The 2026 World Cup will be the first edition with 48 teams competing, featuring 12 groups in the initial stage. The 12 seeded teams are distributed evenly across the groups, including the three host nations and the eight highest-ranked FIFA teams. The top four teams—Spain, Argentina, France, and England—are placed in different brackets and can only meet in the semifinals if they all top their groups.
The top two teams from each group will advance directly to the round of 16, along with the eight best third-placed teams.
Hardest Groups
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway — This group is considered the 'Group of Death' with the highest average FIFA ranking. France is a title contender aiming for a third consecutive final appearance. Senegal is one of Africa's strongest sides. Norway, with Erling Haaland, is a wildcard, while Iraq, despite playing the most matches to qualify, is not easy to beat. Prediction: France and Senegal.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia — The Netherlands rank seventh in the world. Japan was the first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup and has beaten England at Wembley. Sweden boasts Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. Tunisia qualified without conceding a goal. Prediction: Netherlands and Japan.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama — Croatia has reached the final and semifinal of the last two World Cups. England is now under coach Thomas Tuchel. Ghana is led by former coach Carlos Queiroz. Panama is the highest-ranked team in Central America. Prediction: England and Croatia.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland — Brazil, though not at its peak, remains a strong contender under Carlo Ancelotti. Morocco is the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations champion. Prediction: Brazil and Morocco.
Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia — Portugal and Colombia are the clear favorites. Uzbekistan, featuring Abdukodir Khusanov, makes its World Cup debut. Prediction: Portugal and Colombia.
Moderately Hard Groups
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay — Spain, the reigning European champion, is the top favorite. Uruguay, coached by Marcelo Bielsa, will challenge for the top spot. Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina in 2022. Prediction: Spain and Uruguay.
Group E: Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador — Germany aims to advance past the group stage after early exits in the last two World Cups. Ecuador has Moises Caicedo. Ivory Coast beat France in a friendly. Curacao makes its World Cup debut as a wildcard. Prediction: Germany and Ecuador.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan — Argentina is the defending champion. Algeria and Austria will battle for second place. Jordan scored 32 goals in qualifying and remained unbeaten away. Prediction: Argentina and Austria.
Easier Groups
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic — Mexico has home-field advantage. South Korea was unbeaten in Asian qualifying. Prediction: Mexico and South Korea.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand — Belgium is far superior in class. Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah, has never won a World Cup match. Iran faces chaotic preparations due to war. New Zealand has the lowest ranking in the tournament. Prediction: Belgium and Egypt.
Group D: USA, Paraguay, Turkey, Australia — The USA is the highest-ranked team (16th). Turkey advanced through the playoffs. Prediction: USA and Turkey.
Group B: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland — This group has the lowest average ranking (42nd). Switzerland has plenty of experience advancing past the group stage. Canada enjoys home advantage. Bosnia knocked out Italy in the playoffs. Qatar is the 2023 Asian Cup champion. Prediction: Switzerland and Canada.
